An overview of the energy mix and how it will evolve mid-century, given the impacts of factors like population growth and economic prosperity, was the main issue discussed in the Future Energy Scenario forum hosted by Shell Egypt under the auspices of the Minister of Petroleum Eng. Sameh Fahmy, and in collaboration with the Egyptian Petroleum Association (EPA).
To help think about the future of energy, Shell has developed two possible Energy Scenarios: "Scramble" and "Blueprints". The scenarios suggest that nations will either be driven to conflict, fighting for finite resources – grabbing what they can when they can – or there will be greater international cooperation on a sustainable energy future.
Wim Thomas, Head of Energy Analysis Team in Shell’s Global Scenario Group, presented what Shell believes are the plausible energy scenarios until 2050 and the implications of “Scramble” and “Blueprints” scenarios on the pace of global economic development and environmental change. Shell has undertaken to pursue the “Blueprints” scenario, which requires co-operation, collective effort, and willingness on the part of businesses, governments, scientists, academics and society as a whole, to ask the hard questions around the energy challenge and try to find answers to them.
“In our view, the “Blueprints” scenario offers the best hope for a sustainable future,” said Thomas. “Sustainability is key for Shell – both in terms of business interests and in terms of the environmental and socio-economic climate in which it operates.
“We are convinced it is possible with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally to meet the energy challenge.”
“Shell has a portfolio strategy approach and will ensure it is a successful business in either scenario. However, we have a clear preference to live and work in a world with the Blueprints outcomes of a more stable energy system and a more sustainable environment, this future offers a better pathway to provide enough energy for economic growth while managing greenhouse gas emissions,” said Ahmad Atallah, Chairman of Shell Companies in Egypt. Following Mr. Thomas’ speech, panelists Engineer Abdel Alim Taha, EGPC CEO, Eng. Mahmoud Latif, EGAS Chairman, Geol. Abo Bakr Ibrahim, EGPC Deputy CEO for Exploration, Geol. Rashed M. Rashed, EGAS Vice Chairman for Exploration and John McArthur, Operations Manager, Bapetco, discussed the energy scenarios and their possible outcomes for the future. The panelists concluded that there were no easy answers to the energy shortages that the world is likely to face, however, all agreed that Shell’s “Future Energy Dialogues” created a helpful opportunity to discuss greater international cooperation.